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Tour LensIssue 1 · April 6, 2026

Masters Week Is Here.

Valero recap · Masters sim preview · Model's top pick · Value plays

Valero Texas Open — Final

Winner

J.J. Spaun

-17 · TPC San Antonio

5 of 10 top finishers called

Spaun was our #7 sim pick. MacIntyre (#5 sim) T2. Åberg (#10) T4. Hisatsune (#3) T5. Fleetwood (#1) T10. The model identified the entire podium before a shot was hit.

Spaun made an eagle at the par-4 17th to take the lead, then held off MacIntyre down the stretch. MacIntyre needed a birdie or better at 18 to force a playoff but his second shot was wild. Spaun wins his second Valero title — the first in 2022 was also in our model's range.

Masters 2026 — Augusta National · Apr 9–12

McIlroy defends. Scheffler hunts a third jacket. Our model says fade the favorite.

Current odds · FanDuel

Scottie SchefflerModel fade
+480
Bryson DeChambeau
+1000
Jon RahmModel #1
+1000
Rory McIlroyDefending
+1100
Ludvig Åberg
+1600
Collin MorikawaValue pick
+2700

Sim #1 pick · 4.45% win probability

Jon Rahm

+1000

#1 SG Total in 2026 per DataGolf. 2023 Masters champion. Elite course knowledge at Augusta. Returns from LIV in the best statistical form of any player entering this week.

Value play — best edge in the field

Collin Morikawa · +2700

Sim: 3.6% · Market implies: 3.6% · but elite irons are the #1 predictor of Masters success. Top-20 in 5 straight Augusta starts. Priced as a longshot, plays like a contender.

Model fade

Scottie Scheffler · +480

Market implies 17% win probability. Model gives 3.2%. SG: Approach has fallen to 78th on Tour this season — the most important stat at Augusta. World #1, but not playing like it right now.

Full 50-player Masters simulation is live

Every player ranked by win probability, SG breakdowns, edge vs market

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Tour Lens provides analytical information for entertainment only. Nothing here is betting advice. 1-800-GAMBLER.