Monte Carlo Simulation

Valero Texas Open

10,000 tournament simulations · 64 players analyzed

Fleetwood

15.5%

win prob

+600

Keefer

6.8%

win prob

+8000

Hisatsune

5.7%

win prob

+4000

#	Player	Odds	Win %	Top 5	Top 10	Top 20	Avg
1	Tommy FleetwoodFAV	+600	15.49%	42.3%	59.3%	77.6%	13.7
2	Johnny KeeferVALUE	+8000	6.83%	26.3%	41.6%	61.9%	21.1
3	Ryo HisatsuneVALUE	+4000	5.67%	23.4%	38.2%	58.6%	23.0
4	Jordan SpiethCON	+2500	5.28%	21.8%	36.9%	57.4%	23.3
5	Robert MacIntyreCON	+2200	5.23%	22.1%	36.6%	57.0%	23.6
6	Maverick McNealyVALUE	+6500	4.54%	19.5%	34.2%	53.3%	25.3
7	J.J. SpaunVALUE	+4500	3.91%	15.8%	28.6%	48.9%	28.0
8	Sudarshan YellamarajuVALUE	+10000	3.81%	16.9%	30.5%	50.0%	27.3
9	Hideki MatsuyamaCON	+3500	3.31%	16.3%	28.7%	47.4%	28.5
10	Ludvig AbergCON	+2000	3.21%	15.4%	28.8%	48.5%	28.1
11	Russell Henley	+4000	3.17%	16.1%	29.1%	49.3%	27.9
12	Michael Thorbjornsen	+5000	2.71%	13.4%	24.6%	42.7%	31.7
13	Andrew Novak	+7000	2.56%	12.8%	23.9%	41.7%	31.7
14	Si Woo Kim	+5500	2.01%	10.1%	19.8%	36.6%	35.3
15	Sepp Straka	+4000	2.01%	10.4%	20.3%	37.6%	34.8
16	Brian Harman	+3500	1.67%	9.4%	19.1%	35.9%	35.9
17	Keith Mitchell	+5500	1.56%	9.0%	17.7%	34.1%	37.1
18	Marco Penge	+7000	1.36%	8.2%	17.0%	33.6%	37.5

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Full sim table, SG filters, DFS salary overlay, analyst notes.

Model factors: OWGR, 2026 SG metrics, course history, recent form, and course-fit ratings. 10,000 simulations run each Monday.