2026 Season
The Record
Every pick. Every result. No hiding, no cherry-picking.
The pick that started it all
Valspar Championship 2026
Copperhead Course · Innisbrook Resort
Our pick — pre-tournament
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sim rank
#3
Odds
+1800
Win prob
5.2%
Why the model loved him
SG: Approach ranked top 8 globally entering the week
Course-fit multiplier of 1.24 — Copperhead punishes the same misses Fitzpatrick never makes
SG: Around the Green top 10 — critical at Innisbrook where the rough is severe
Won the Valspar format before — precision over distance
What happened Sunday
Fitzpatrick entered Sunday three shots off the lead. He played the back nine in 3-under, birdied the 18th hole to post the clubhouse lead, then watched David Lipsky miss the green on 18 that would have forced a playoff. Final margin: one shot.
"The model saw it four days before the first tee time."
Full tournament log
Season underway
Results populate after each tournament completes.
How we define a win
A win is recorded any week the tournament winner was called inside our sim top 10 before the first tee shot. Not just the #1 pick — any of the 10.
This makes sense for a few reasons. Golf is the highest-variance sport on the planet — even the best model in the world can't reliably separate the winner from a group of 5–10 equally likely contenders. What a good model can do is identify the pool of players most likely to win and eliminate the rest of the field. If the winner comes from that pool, the model worked. That's what matters for DFS, Kalshi, and prediction markets — not picking one name, but knowing which players to be on.
What this model is — and isn't
No model — not ours, not anyone's — can pick the outright winner every week. A world-class player can shoot 75 on Sunday due to a single bad bounce. That's not the point.
The point is systematic edge identification. Finding players the market undervalues for a specific course. Identifying who will contend before it happens. That's what wins at DFS, prediction markets, and office pools over a full season.