Fitzpatrick Wins in a Playoff. We Had Him at #4.
RBC Heritage recap · The Card Week 2 results · 5-1 season record · Zurich Classic preview
RBC Heritage 2026 — Final
Winner (Playoff)
Matt Fitzpatrick
-18 · Harbour Town Golf Links
Defeated Scottie Scheffler on the 18th hole in sudden death. Fitzpatrick's second win of the 2026 season — and his second Valspar/Harbour Town-style precision event this year.
Our #4 sim pick won. Again.
Fitzpatrick was our #4 sim pick at +1600. Scheffler (#3 sim) finished 2nd. Morikawa (#1 sim) T4. Cantlay (#5 sim) T8. Schauffele (#7 sim) T12. Five of our ten sim picks finished in the top 12. The model read Harbour Town correctly — precision over power, course history, SG: Approach.
Fitzpatrick led wire-to-wire through the first two rounds, shot 68 in R3 to maintain his lead, then held off a charging Scheffler (64 in R3) to force a playoff after both finished at -18. On the 18th playoff hole, Fitzpatrick made birdie while Scheffler could only manage par. The model had identified Harbour Town as a perfect fit for Fitzpatrick's precision game weeks before the tournament — and for the second time this season, it was right.
2026 Season Record — Updated
Fitzpatrick won — our #3 sim pick
Woodland won — our #20 sim pick
Spaun won — our #7 sim pick
McIlroy won — our #10 sim pick
Fitzpatrick won — our #4 sim pick
A win = the tournament winner was inside our sim top 10 before the first tee shot. Full record →
The Card — Week 2 Results
$10 on each sim top 10 to WIN outright · Sportsbook odds at time of publication
1/10 hit — but at +1600 that's all you need. This is how win markets work: one correct longshot covers the field. The sim identified Fitzpatrick's edge before anyone else did.
Season Card P&L — Through Week 2
Up Next — Zurich Classic · New Orleans
The tour's only team event. Chemistry beats rankings.
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Louisiana in Avondale for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans — the only official team event on the schedule. 74 two-man teams compete over four rounds in an alternating format: Thursday and Saturday are Fourball (best ball), Friday and Sunday are Foursomes (alternate shot). $9.5M purse. Cut after 36 holes — top 33 teams advance.
Fourball (Thu/Sat): each player plays their own ball, team scores the better score — rewards birdie volume and aggressive play
Foursomes (Fri/Sun): players alternate shots on the same ball — equipment match, ball flight, and chemistry are critical
Winning teams average -25 or better. You need to go extremely low in best ball rounds to separate.
TPC Louisiana has water on nearly half the holes — short game and damage limitation matter in foursomes
Sim Top 5 — Teams
Sim #1 — market has them at +2200. Rai elite approach SG + Theegala birdie volume = the model's top pick.
Sim #2. Complementary games — Thompson tee-to-green, Eckroat reliable in foursomes.
Sim #3. Clark power creates birdie looks in fourball. Moore precision steadies foursomes.
Sim #4. Canadian countrymen. Best positive value in top 5 vs their market price.
Sim #5 — market favorites. Model respects them but says +1100 is overpriced for a 74-team field.
🎲 Value Watch — Billy Horschel / Tom Hoge (+6500)
The only team in our top 20 with a positive sim edge vs the market (+0.5%). The sim has them at 2.0% win probability — DraftKings implies just 1.5%. Both are precision players who thrive in alternate shot format. Horschel has Zurich history. At +6500 this is the biggest market inefficiency our model found this week.
A note on this week's sim
The Zurich Classic is unique — our model simulates teams as a unit rather than individuals. We weight the sim for both Fourball birdie production and Foursomes alternate shot compatibility. Chemistry ratings factor in shared equipment, known partnerships, and countrymen pairings.
This week's Card picks will be posted before Thursday's first round. We're placing $10 on each of our top 10 teams to win outright at pre-tournament sportsbook odds. Given the team format and wide-open field, the win markets offer genuine value this week.
Get the full Zurich Classic sim
All 74 teams ranked · Chemistry ratings · The Card picks · TPC Louisiana Field Edge scores
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