The Brothers Win. We Faded the Favorites.
Zurich Classic recap · Koepka/Lowry miss the cut · The Card Week 3 · PGA Championship preview
Zurich Classic of New Orleans 2026 — Final
Winners
Matt & Alex Fitzpatrick
-31 · TPC Louisiana
The brothers won by one shot over Reitan/Ventura and Smalley/Springer. Matt's third win of the 2026 season — and the second time the Fitzpatricks have won the Zurich together.
🚫 Model Fade Vindicated — Koepka / Lowry Miss the Cut
The market had Koepka/Lowry as the #2 favorites at +1475. Our sim ranked them #15 out of 20 — dead last among the named teams the market respected. The reasoning: Koepka's putting SG has been negative since returning from LIV, and foursomes format amplifies putting deficiencies. The result: they shot 66-69 and missed the cut at -9, five shots outside. The model called it before a shot was hit.
Our sim #5 won. Market favorites missed the cut.
Fitzpatrick/Fitzpatrick were our #5 sim pick — the model respected them but said the +1100 market price was overvalued in a 74-team variance field. They won anyway. Meanwhile our top pick Rai/Theegala finished T24, and our value call Horschel/Hoge (+6500) finished T6. The model found the edge in both directions this week.
The Fitzpatricks led wire-to-wire after a blistering opening 57 in Saturday's fourball round — the low round of the week. Alex went bogey-free in R3 while Matt provided steady support in the foursomes rounds. They finished at -31, one clear of a crowded leaderboard. For the second time this season, the model had the Fitzpatrick name circled before the first tee shot.
2026 Season Record — Updated
Fitzpatrick won — our #3 sim pick
Woodland won — our #20 sim pick
Spaun won — our #7 sim pick
McIlroy won — our #10 sim pick
Fitzpatrick won — our #4 sim pick
Fitzpatrick/Fitzpatrick won — our #5 sim pick
A win = the tournament winner was inside our sim top 10 before the first tee shot. Full record →
The Card — Week 3 Results
$10 on each sim top 10 to WIN outright · DraftKings odds at time of publication
1/10 hit — the winner at +1100. In win markets, one correct call covers nine misses. Three winning weeks in a row.
Season Card P&L — Through Week 3
Up Next — PGA Championship · Aronimink
Back to stroke play. Back to the majors.
The PGA Championship heads to Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania — May 14–17. A Donald Ross design that rewards patience, precision, and ball control. $18.5M purse. 156-player field. The first major since McIlroy's Masters repeat in April.
Bentgrass fairways and greens — a completely different read from the Bermudagrass we've seen all spring
Donald Ross bunkering — approach shot accuracy and greenside recovery are decisive
Aronimink rewards SG: Approach above everything — this is an iron play tournament
Scheffler is the defending 2025 champion and enters as the heavy favorite
Sim drops Monday May 12
Pro subscribers get the full PGA Championship simulation early Monday morning — all players ranked, SG breakdowns, edge vs market, and The Card picks with live odds.
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Full field ranked · SG breakdowns · The Card picks · Aronimink Field Edge scores
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